The Truth Shall Set Them All Free From The “Rumsfeld Quadrant”
"We're not prescient. We don't know exactly how things are going to be.” (Loretta J. Mester)
Summary:
· FA Cup Final 2024 portents are “gloriously” rhyming with the 1990s Global Macro Thesis.
· Motive, means, and opportunity for a perceived verdict of US Presidential Election “theft”, rather than loss, have elevated.
· Released “Prisoner of Transience”, Loretta J. Mester, confesses that “Transient Groupthink” has been the FOMC’s “Rumsfeld Quadrant” jailer.
· Mester’s staffers/judges sentence her “Transient Groupthink” gang to a “several year” stretch in the “Rumsfeld Quadrant” high economic insecurity solitary confinement wing.
· Cognitive blindness prevents the Fed from seeing the impact of its balance sheet on r*.
· Biden’s “OPEC+ October Surprise” mitigation strategy is a regional capitulation.
· A “Desert Storm” is blowing in from China.
· The “Desert Storm” is a regional headwind that will raise regional risk premiums.
· Jamie Dimon “narrates”, his firm’s positioning for, a Lehman/Bear Stearns moment at, his competitors, in private credit, outside the Federal Reserve Banking system.
· There is no Kind (K), in a Synthetic Payment In Kind (SPIK), during a hard landing volatility spike.
· The “Smartest Guys In the Room” have, apparently, got five years, of fees, and a new Presidential Election Cycle first term, to put the next $300 Billion “Big Short” on.
Extracts
· Since the Independents have abandoned Biden, on the economy, it is now Trump’s election to lose and/or have stolen.
(Source: the Author)
· The “Leader of the Free World” is lagging globally, and domestically, behind its democratic peers and followers, respectively.
· The “Leader of the Free World” is lagging, globally, in the “biggest global election year in history”.
· The anticipated “Unified Reich” will exacerbate the “Leader of the Free World’s” lag.
· A perceived lagging Free World Leader is in a position to have his/her leadership “stolen” and/or lost.
(Source: the Author)
· The Key Signals analysis contradicts Chairman Powell’s rate optimism testimony.
· The Fed may be “not far” from easing, but it is closer to tightening before it eases.
· At this point, the Fed is unlikely to ease, before a new Presidential Cycle has begun unless it is rooting for the incumbent.
· At this point, the Fed is more likely to tighten, into a new Presidential Cycle, before being quickly forced into easing by the hard landing that it has created.
(Source: the Author)
· Biden’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve repurchase tactic makes Powell’s “Transient” pause structurally permanent.
· Biden’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve repurchase swing signals that the USA has lost its Swing Producer Status.
· The US loss of Swing Producer Status signals the loss of the disinflationary growth initiative.
· The loss of the disinflationary growth initiative signals the Biden loss of the presidential election initiative.
· The “October Surprise” is likely to be withheld OPEC+ supply until Trump is elected.
(Source: the Author)
· Biden’s “OPEC+ October Surprise” mitigation strategy is a fiscal deficit-widening, wealth transfer, from US Voter/Taxpayer to oil producers and oil-producing states.
· Biden’s “OPEC+ October Surprise” mitigation strategy pushes the “surprise” out into the future.
(Source: the Author)
· Dimon’s Stagflation call is an echo of the recent poor bank earnings season.
(Source: the Author)
