Dope Inc’s White Lines Have “White Labels” And Red (BRIC) Lines
"In (Techno-Economic War), truth is the first casualty." (Aeschylus, parenthesised by the Author)
Summary:
· The inflation debate has assumed a life of its own, which is becoming irrelevant in the real economy but remains highly relevant in the surreal economy of the capital markets.
· Inflation (and monetary policy) is, everywhere and always a financial stability phenomenon.
· Disinflation is hiding, in plain sight, and the Soft Landing has appeared in the University of Michigan data.
· Given the diversity, of the US real economy, smaller sustained rate hikes, as prescribed by Kansas City Fed president Esther George, are more appropriate.
· This author’s abiding takeaway, from the COVID experience, is that the US economy has become more diverse and remains on a diverging trend.
· The US is seizing the future whilst also occupying the current internet of things.
· POTUS stimulates a bit of Wet Work, in “Speaker Pelosi’s Bottom”, for US “Bio-Techno-Economic Warriors”.
· “Be all that you can Buy” in “Conventional-Economic War” positioning in “Speaker Pelosi’s Bottom”.
· The Belt and Road may be sanctioned globally for using NAFTA, regionally, as a Chinese “Trojan Horse” to undermine US trade policy through “white labelling”.
· The Brzezinski Doctrinaire Silk Road context for the Western assault on the Belt and Road is apposite.
· India distances itself from the vertically integrated narcotics enterprise (VINE) frame through which China is perceived by America.
· Russia may be in transition, from the BRICs, to the original Axis of Evil.
· President Biden is poised to betray President Zelenskiy and Chairman Powell.
· Boeing is the barometer of American “Techno-Economic Friend Shoring” policy.
· German and French inflation potential is contingent upon the energy rationing policy of nationalised resources.
· “Lizzo” Truss is juicing the UK economy by jibbing the Bank of England, Weimar Style, with an English accent.
· The Bank of England will jib the UK’s foreign deficit financiers at great cost to the UK economy.
· Non-Rationing Britain’s unsustainable Weimar-on-Thames Rave is being politically juiced, in the short run, by ephemeral Sovereign mourning and over-optimistic World Cup hopes.
U-Mich Tips the Balance of Risks ….
The tipping point for the balance of risks, from inflation to growth is at a delicate political phase. Weak growth could undermine President Biden’s Mid-Term election showing. Inflation could wreck it all.
Ever the skilled political orator, President Biden is tipping his own message, concerning the balance of risks, in order to capitalize, on opportunities, and manage the risks associated with both of the drivers. In response, to the incoming inflation data, Biden has lowered his expectations for a swift improvement. He does, however, remain confident that the inflation situation will improve in 2023.
Biden’s positioning is consistent with the latest Gallup polling, of consumer behavior, in relation to inflation. The sampled US consumer is experiencing an inflation headwind and is responding by curbing spending, on aggregate, in addition to limiting consumption to necessities.
Those, including the Fed, who are, seemingly, betting against Biden seemed almost gleeful about the latest alleged “nightmare” US CPI data. Little attention, at best (non-whatsoever as usual), was paid to the Monthly (NSA) month-on-month figure, not followed by the Fed, but followed by this author, which showed a convincing fall for the second month.
Another inflation indicator, closely watched by this author, and currently ignored by most others, is also starting to convincingly head lower.
The latest University of Michigan Inflation Expectations data is breaking lower.
The Michigan data is also interesting because it shows Consumer Sentiment, clearly, picking up as inflation expectations fall, even, as interest rates are rising. Herein lies the Soft Landing story that nobody is currently talking about because the Fed doesn’t want them to.
The Fed’s dilemma has been worsened by the fact that the impact of inflation is not uniform, across the nation, by geography and, demographics.
The latest Beige Book has, also, shown that some districts, including Philadelphia and Chicago, are on the cusp of recession. The efficacy of one size fits all mega Fed rate hikes is entirely inappropriate, under these diverse circumstances, even whilst appearing to be ubiquitous.
This author’s abiding takeaway, from the COVID experience, is that the US economy has become more diverse, and remains on a diverging trend, despite periodic wealth-democratizing risk-off episodes.
This divergence is consistent with the partisan divergence that is also evident and growing. President Biden understands this divergence. Chairman Powell only understands the bit about the distributional behavior of Fed-induced equity market rallies and corrections.
· The Quality and Quantity of Tightening are constrained by Esther George’s soliloquy.
(Source: the Author)
Given the “constraining” diversity, of the US economy, smaller sustained interest rate hikes, as prescribed by Kansas City Fed president Esther George, are more appropriate. “Constraint”, upon monetary policy decision-making, was the theme of the recent Jackson Hole symposium hosted by George. Nobody got it, except Esther George, by the look of things.
Summary:
· Loretta Mester’s deliberate ignoring of the employment mandate is professional misconduct, on a par with her previous “broadly inclusive” failure to follow the inflation mandate, rather than a form of clear extended forward guidance.
· The most notable thing about this year’s Jackson Hole symposium was the complete sweeping under the carpet of the issue of the Fed’s, too successful, flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT), monetary policymaking framework.
· Neel “Ex Culpa” Kashkari’s sadistic pleasure in poor Fed communication policy weakens the central bank’s credible commitment even further.
(Source: the Author)
Thanks to the emphasis by Chairman Powell, et al, on inflation fighting, rather than the constraints upon the fight, at Jackson Hole, the US economy now faces being sacrificed for the edification of the Fed’s credible commitment. Once again, the economy may pay the price for the Fed’s mistakes.
This author suspects that the inflation debate has assumed a commoditized, and traded, life of its own, that is becoming irrelevant, in the real economy, but remains highly relevant in the surreal economy of the capital markets.
Consequently, the blind will lead the blind, to kill the US housing market, for the convoluted reasoning that there are not enough available rental houses, for buyers who can’t afford the mortgage interest cost of buying the same dwelling. The presumption is that more rental housing will somehow appear out of the wave, of foreclosures, that follows rate hikes. Since, however, there won’t be any more houses built, because the builders are in a rate hike-induced recession, the problem has not been permanently solved. Having made the same mistake as it did, before, leading up to the GFC, the Fed believes that its credibility will be restored by repeating the same error of judgment.
· “Shadow Chairman Summers” is not the enemy of the FOMC, he is now its leader.
(Source: the Author)
There’s a lot more than speculative P&L, for the Shorts, riding on the FOMC’s next decision, hence, the enthusiasm to nudge the Fed to go big. Reputations and careers have been staked on the next meeting.
Putative Shadow Chairman Larry Summers has predicted a hard economic landing, hence his recent enthusiasm for the FOMC to hike by 100 basis points at the next meeting. His target for a benchmark rate that stops inflation is 4.3%. The real question is who should be blamed for this debacle. One senses that Summers would like to blame the Fed.
The Fed also knows that with, or without, its credibility restored, it will soon need to ease massively to bring the assets on its balance sheet back into positive territory. Credibility, and mandates, are of secondary importance when central bank insolvency comes knocking at the door. Central banking employment, and salaries, are inflation and recession-proof! They are not, however, insolvency proof, hence the Fed must make financial stability policy decisions, first and foremost, to maintain its own solvency.
· Inflation is being primarily fought with financial stability policy tightening rather than monetary policy tightening.
(Source: the Author)
Inflation (and monetary policy) is, hence, everywhere, and always, a financial stability phenomenon. Unfortunately, the Fed is off on one, trying to recoup the credible commitment that it lost in Q1/2021 when it took its eye off, the inflation barometer dial on, its dual mandate console.
· Monetary Policy tightening is ending because the Fed has reached the technical “unrealized” insolvency event horizon.
· The Fed’s expanding balance sheet is a black hole that is pulling the central bank towards exclusive Financial Stability Policymaking to the exclusion of Monetary Policymaking.
· Jackson Hole should probably be renamed Central Bank Black Hole.
(Source: the Author)
The belated response, to spiking inflation, has now occasioned balance sheet losses, for the Fed, which threaten the credit creation process for the US real economy. Hiking interest rates just makes the situation worse for the economy.
The real economy priority issue, of growth risk, is being addressed, via fiscal policy, with a bi-partisan “Friend Shoring” disinflationary supply-side stimulus that just seems to keep on giving, but not necessarily to everyone.
Biden Stimulates a bit of Global Macro Wet Work in “Speaker Pelosi’s Bottom” for US Nano-Scale “Bio-Techno-Economic Warriors” ….
· Federal subsidy and “Friend Shoring” private capital flows will create bubble valuations in the US “Hypergrowth Phase”.
· Speaker Pelosi’s Bottom is allegedly a “forgotten” US City where President Biden looks for votes.
(Source: the Author)
The last report considered the scale, and timing, of the anticipated US “Hypergrowth Phase”; and the distribution of the spoils of the “Techno-Economic War” within the American polity. It was assumed that the spoils would go to US capital and investors.
· The US “Friend Shoring” valve has tightened from the global singularity to the global economy-destructive “Death Star” level.
(Source: the Author)
Ostensibly, this is a declaration of intentions and capabilities to prosecute a “Techno-Economic War” indiscriminately on friends and foes alike. America is making no distinctions, about, whom it attacks as it seeks to win the “Techno-Economic War”.
(Source: the Author)
These relatively-outsized returns on capital were seen as consistent with the thesis that protectionist policy would prevent them from leaking back into the global economy. This protectionism, whilst a necessary element of the war, would ostensibly lead to trade war confrontation with US allies.
The nano-scale protectionism, and stimulus, have now gone global macro scale. In the near future, the White House intends to expand the embargo on semiconductor IP from the highest grade of semiconductors to the more ubiquitous lower quality grades. In effect, the US is seizing the future whilst also occupying the current internet of things.
The technological combat zone has also been broadened.
President Biden is not done with the $Trillions of semiconductor stimulus. POTUS fully intends for there to be a “Bio-Techno-Economic War”, with China, in addition to what Vinod Khosla has called the “Techno-Economic War”.
Those who do not think that there is a “Bio-Techno-Economic War” ignore the fact that part of the Federal funding, for the initiative, will come directly from the Department of Defence, with the specific aim of “Friend Shoring” production to enhance national security. Evidently, the reliance on Chinese, and Indian, COVID vaccine suppliers did not go unnoticed. This should be good for another $Trillion, or so, in fiscal stimulus, and a commensurate P/E expansion in US Biotech stocks.
Speaker Pelosi “loves” Microsoft and Apple call options. Madam Speaker’s recent eyebrow-raising leveraged bottom fishing has raised more than a few eyebrows.
(Source: the Author)
This author eagerly anticipates having some banter, with a new strapline, linking “Speaker Pelosi’s Bottom”, and Blue Horseshoe, to the speculative hunt for value creation in the Biotech sector. This author does not hold out much hope for US healthcare costs falling, however, since the companies, with the astronomical valuations, will need astronomical revenues to justify them.
Whatever its other alleged failings, one cannot say that the USA does not take the subject of war seriously. One could say that it takes it a little too seriously.
Having covered the “Techno-Economic War” and “Bio-Techno-Economic War” bases, the Pentagon is, going for a hat-trick by, covering the “Conventiono-Economic War” base. The head of the US Army procurement judges that munitions stockpiles are too low. Some of this is attributable to the Ukraine war support effort. It also has to be said that some of it is attributable to a general US re-armament phase. This re-armament phase is, clearly, not just for the hell of it.
America, evidently, views the world as an unstable and unfriendly place into which it must project power and possibly use it. The instability, and unfriendliness, are, evidently, expected to worsen. The fact that the US Army is considering long-term supply contracts is not just a view on inflation, and the need to lock in current war-making prices to make future war affordable. Entering into such contracts also shows that the US Army does not expect global hostilities to subside in the long term.
Any reader old enough to remember the “deficits don’t matter” economic stimulus, that Reagan and Cheney created, should understand what happens next. This time, the stimulus is times three (“Techo” X “Bio” X “Conventional”).
Silicon Valley is up for Biden’s “Slam Dunk of the Millennium”, according to legendary venture investor Vinod Khosla. He predicts that the US and China will soon be in a bi-decennial “Techno-Economic War”. This war will be based on a conflict of underlying values. Market values of American technology must, then, by definition, be boosted, to several multiples of their Chinese competitors, if America is to be the winner. American companies must also remain in private hands and be listed on stock exchanges by the same default victory conditions. “My Dad’s Market Cap is bigger than Your Dad’s Market Cap”, as they say.
(Source: the Author)
This author has framed the “Techno-Economic War” as one of competing market capitalizations as proxies for relative GDP. Mr. Market appears to be framing it way this way also.
Currently, the market capitalization of US Tech Inc. is less ugly than that of China Tech Inc. This relative value trade only discounts the protectionism and tightening liquidity drivers of the geo-political spread. Thus, this is a war of attrition phase relative valuation. Mr. Market has yet to factor in the $Trillions, in stimulus, that will be expended by either side going forward.
On the topical subject matter, of astronomy, and “Techno-Economic War”, the Dark Side of the US Federation’s policymaking is meeting global resistance.
The Empire Strikes Back ….
· The US “Friend Shoring” valve has tightened from the global singularity to the global economy destructive “Death Star” level.
(Source: the Author)
Ostensibly, this is a declaration of intentions and capabilities to prosecute a “Techno-Economic War” indiscriminately on friends and foes alike. America is making no distinctions, about, whom it attacks as it seeks to win the “Techno-Economic War”.
(Source: the Author)
As noted, previously, there is a protectionist element, in US economic policy, that does not discriminate between friends and foes. It has not taken the European Union (EU) long to respond to the protectionist elements within US “Friend Shoring” economic policy. The EU is now assessing if the US is in breach of WTO rules.
· It would seem that OPEC and Russia have tipped the Eurozone into becoming the “swing” superpower challenger to the USA.
(Source: the Author)
As also noted, previously, the EU has become the “swing” superpower threat to the US. In response, the EU is now mulling taxing global fossil fuel companies and transferring the appropriated wealth to European consumers/taxpayers/voters.
Goldman, presumably, has got the underlying trade on, and, has decided to let the not-as-smart people in the room in on the “Friend Shoring” trade.
· Russia, and OPEC, have unwittingly conspired to make the USA the key global swing oil producer during the Ukraine war.
(Source: the Author)
As noted, by this author, America has been “unwittingly” propelled into becoming the “key global swing oil producer”.
· “Technological Terrorist” America may use the same energy weapon, used by Russia, to enforce a global technology embargo on China.
· China is weaponizing its petroleum sector in the same way that Russia is.
(Source: the Author)
Combined with protectionist support, for its technology sector, the global strength of the US economy has been enhanced, rather than undermined as wrongly anticipated by its enemies.
In fact, America’s enemies have given America the motive, method, and opportunity to advance at their expense. Not surprisingly, America has not interrupted its enemies whilst they have been making these mistakes.
If one looks, carefully, one may see that America has actually encouraged its enemies to boldly compound their mistakes. For example, President Biden warned that Russia would invade Ukraine and then, promptly, did nothing to stop the invasion. Since then, support for Ukraine has been in ways and means which achieve American strategic objectives.
These encouraged, and compounded, mistakes have also been made by Mr. Market, along with a little help from the Fed. The alleged inflation-spiking Ukraine war was sold short by Mr. Market. The Fed’s belated rate hikes elicited a similar sell everything response. Value was thus created, in the sell-off, for those insiders who understand the “Friend Shoring” “Hypergrowth Phase” that ensues.
This author’s proprietary analytical tool signaled that the Fed should have started easing in the first week of May. The Fed has hiked since then, thereby creating the capitulation valuations and, hence, the justification for the imminent fiscal stimulus.
The big question now is whether the fiscal stimulus is viewed as pro-cyclically inflationary, or supply-side countercyclical plus structurally deflationary.
The enthusiasm shown by the BRICs to advance the case for a New Multipolar World Order (NMWO) has, thus, enhanced the demise of their version of it. America has not disabused the BRICs of their folly. In fact, America has encouraged them since their endeavor is the justification for the American fiscal and military response. This misguided, and US-encouraged, enthusiasm may also have enhanced the demise of the BRICs in their current form.
There are no BRICs but there are discrete R, I, and C ….
· The BRICs tipping point is congruent with a new Ukraine “peace with honour” attempt.
(Source: the Author)
The last report chronicled the beginning of the end of the BRICs as it was originally sold to us by Baron O’Neill of Gatley, formerly Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs.
The demise is accelerating, thanks to the Western media’s passionate embrace of the, presumed, dialectic struggle currently infecting the BRICs’ harmony. The desire to make President Putin question the fidelity of China is particularly obvious.
· Russia is at the global strategic loss threshold despite Potemkin claims to the contrary.
(Source: the Author)
In the last report, this author noted President Putin theatrically second-guessing the Sino-Russian bond. Evidently, the Western editorial line wishes to deepen Putin’s dilemma and discomfort.
· As President Putin’s offensive, and his health, dissipate the G7 “Friend-Shoring-Driver” casus belli is pivoting from Russia to China’s “COVID-Zero” policy.
(Source: the Author)
The new discomfort is over the Silk Road, an intrinsic artery of Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road system. Allegedly, Putin’s strategic move against Ukraine has cost him the fealty and loyalty of the Stans. The Stans, apparently, now pay tribute, in the form of essential commodities, to Emperor Xi rather than to Czar Vladimir.
Perhaps, to make the Stans second guess themselves, Russian sources have stated that China’s political Number Three has, recently, reiterated his support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese Ambassador to Russia appeared to give further credence to the Russian assertion with an ensuing speech in which he said that “the relationship between the two countries has always been on the right track, and both sides firmly support each other on issues relating to their core interests.” His Chinese excellency also, ambiguously, said that his country is willing to work with Russia to take the world “in a more just and reasonable direction.” The phrase “more just” is open to a wide interpretation, with and without President Putin.
Diplomats have a way of saying that they love you, even, as they are leaving you. It would be better to hear the exact position from the Chinese primary source, of President Xi Jinping, however, rather than quoting a secondary messenger boy.
The issue of Vladivostok is, perhaps, the ultimate test of Sino-Russian relations. Vladivostok was annexed by Russia in 1860. China still believes that it is Chinese. If China wants Taiwan, then, ultimately it must want Vladivostok, too, by default. At this point, being an enemy of America does not make Russia and China friends anymore.
· As went Saddam’s Iraq, so goes Putin’s Russia.
(Source: the Author)
The fact that Russia is re-arming itself with North Korean and Iranian arms, shows just how little logistic support it is getting from China in Ukraine. The alleged recruitment of Russian convicts, to fight in Ukraine, shows how the desperation is leading to further potential war crimes charges. These initiatives also show how depleted and denuded the Russian economy has become since Ukraine was invaded. In the global negotiation of contracts for metals purchases, for next year, Russia is being excluded. Even though China is not averse to using conscript labor, in its factories, there are limits to its support for Russia.
China, evidently, fears a greater US and EU embargo, on its trade, rather than any moral compunction to step back from Russia. Russia is headed towards Axis of Evil Membership, in the same way, that Saddam Hussein did. Xi Jinping does not want to find himself on the same list. Thus far, there may be enough forensic circumstantial evidence to pencil him in.
Hence, thus far, as anticipated, “as went Saddam’s Iraq, so goes Putin’s Russia”. It is mind-boggling that President Putin, who once lectured America on its strategic mistakes in Iraq, is headed the same way. Some would say it is karma. Some would say it is regime change. China, clearly, has got some camouflaged skin in the game and is not necessarily wearing the same kind of DPMs that President Putin wants President Xi to wear.
The bottom line is that President Xi Jinping met with the leader of Uzbekistan well before he met with President Putin on the Chinese leader’s first post-COVID foreign trip. Prior to the Uzbekistan visit, President Xi was in Kazakhstan. President Putin was, at least, third in President Xi’s priorities.
It is alleged that during the Kazakhstan visit, Xi made security guarantees to his hosts with the words: “We (China) will resolutely support Kazakhstan in the defence of its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”
Xi’s Uzbek trip is part of a regional economic/security summit, that was also attended by Indian PM Narendra Modi and Turkish President Erdogan.
Evidently, President Xi prioritizes the Stans very highly. Evidently, higher than Vladivostok right now. By logical extension, therefore, President Xi is concerned about the stability of the Silk Road in his Belt and Road wardrobe. This concern opens the door for disagreement, and even potential conflict, with President Putin. Since India is also involved, in the regional security summit, the BRICs context and potential for re-alignment/misalignment is also part of the bigger picture.
Thus, the much-publicized meeting of President Xi Jinping with President Putin was a smaller deal in the context of the geo-synchronous regional bigger deals. In fact, the Xi-Putin meeting was circumscribed by these wider geo-synchronous parameters. Consequently, the meeting of the two was civil, but lacking in strategic bromance.
President Biden is also re-evaluating one of his strategic bromances. It may, in due course, be downgraded to the tactical-buddy level.
Having kicked the global hornet’s nest, with support for Ukraine, President Biden has to manage the Russian loss strategically in a way that does not make China the winner in the Stans. President Zelenskiy wants Crimea back. Apparently, President Biden disagrees, thereby, implying that it has already been negotiated away as part of an emerging diplomatic settlement with Russia.
· The BRICs tipping point is congruent with a new Ukraine “peace with honour” attempt.
(Source: the Author)
A “peace with honor”, that removes President Putin but keeps Russia engaged with the West is the acme of skill.
· The thirty-year threat/growth narrative requires monetary and fiscal policy expansion on a scale larger than the COVID-19 response.
· The American thirty-year narrative involves the funding and creation of a bipartisan consensus from the perceived Chinese threat via Latin America.
(Source: the Author)
On the other hand, just the right elevated degree of global threat is required. by President Biden, to enable his bipartisan domestic economic stimulus and “Friend Shoring” agenda.
President Biden has, so far, failed to convincingly blame either President Putin or China, for America’s current economic problems. His attempt to deliver the solution, in the form of more supply-side stimulus is, thus, challenged. The facts have clearly changed. These facts signal that it is game over for the Biden administration.
Faced with defeat, President Biden will change the play rather than concede. This is what he does.
(Source: the Author)
It’s a tricky one, for Biden, managing all these threats and opportunities. He is, however, blessed in that there is no shortage of threats with which to create his opportunities. Frankly speaking, he was dead and done thanks to inflation and the Fed. As they happened, the Ukraine War and Taiwan situation have brought his political fortunes back to life. A cynic may argue that there was, therefore, method in the madness of letting Russia waltz into Ukraine after spotting Russian forces well in advance of the invasion. The same cynic may also argue that sending Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan, whilst feigning disapproval in public, was also similarly inspired.
· It’s Slam Dunk time for the Biden New Multipolar World Order.
(Source: the Author)
Readers old enough, to remember, will remember that Stagflation and the military/fiscal response to it are what made the legend of Ronald Reagan. Joe Biden will certainly remember and appears to have learned the lesson well.
At some point, therefore, Biden will be obliged to betray Ukraine for American strategic gain. In theory, he already betrayed Ukraine by letting Russia waltz in. After all, America has also got Europe just where it wants it, that is, on its knees. As with Afghanistan, it is in America’s strategic interest to have a contested country in, the thick of things, especially where Russia meets China, that perennially requires American involvement. Better, therefore, for the Ukraine war to drag on to be used tactically in the furtherance of American global strategic interest.
The author expects the President to start blaming the Fed for undermining his supply-side solution. FOMC speakers are providing opportunities for the President’s means and motive. Presumably, these same speakers are also blowing the “Hurricane” that is cooling Jamie Dimon’s pies.
(Source: the Author)
On the domestic front, Biden will also be obliged to betray Chairman Powell. Larry Summers waits in the wings, of this great betrayal, ready to pounce.
It’s all become a bit Vikings meets Game of Thrones, but since this genre is so popular, on Netflix, at the moment, one can understand why this thesis has been promulgated by the allegedly independent Western press.
Brzezinski’s Chessboard is still playable ….
It's also all a bit Brzezinski Doctrinaire, too, thus confirming the classical education and Langley IP address of the authors of the latest episodes. But, hey, a successful global media franchise is all about repeat episodes rather than one blockbuster film success.
A World War III, franchise, if and when it occurs, will be in Eurasia if the disciples of the Zbigniew Brzezinski film school are in the director’s chair.
Narco-Barons are also big box office, on Netflix, too, as noted in the last report, hence, this genre is being used to sell foreign policy to the masses. They are also big box office in the news of late. They are also big box office in Langley too as Fidel Castro knew and Ollie North found out to his chagrin. Once again, the Belt and Road is a key location in the new episodes. And, once again, China and its Belt and Road are the backstory protagonists.
This author notes with some amusement, and trepidation, that a journalist from the Escobar extended family has recently chronicled the “Saigon Moment in the Hindu Kush” along with a curious photo from the Brzezinski holiday photo album. Is history about to rhyme or repeat?
According to an Escobar family member, America, apparently, left a power vacuum behind when it, recently, left Afghanistan. This author doesn’t buy this storyline.
Perhaps the American intention and capability were to fill this vacuum with American proxies, rather than American boots on the ground. The ensuing episodes in the new series will inform. If this is the case, then America’s “delayed” response, to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, was a moment of Parthian military genius, similar to its delayed response to the “surprise” Russian invasion of Afghanistan.
By delaying the resistance, to Russia, recently in Ukraine, and historically in Afghanistan, the Stans were put into play.
· China’s Belt and Road initiative may soon be officially designated Dope Inc. headquartered in Hong Kong.
(Source: the Author)
Apparently, the Stans favor China, over Russia, at the moment. Their feelings may change, in future episodes, if and when China is framed as a Narco-Empire and the Belt and Road as a Narco-Logistics smuggling network. How the Stans will feel about China, in this Dope Inc. episode, will certainly be riveting viewing.
Mexico is also a key filming location in the latest series.
In the previous episode, Mexico was identified as the narcotics hub that was turning NAFTA into a narcotics free-trade zone.
In the latest episode, the NAFTA context has been used to expose Chinese export tariff dodging via Mexico. This scheme is, allegedly, accomplished by offshore “white-labeling” factories of Chinese companies. Evidently, China is using the practice of “white-labeling” to avoid tariffs and accrue trade revenues. China’s Belt and Road initiative is, hence, now viewed as a mechanism to subvert US trade policy.
· The behaviour of the Chinese Diaspora should be observed carefully after the assassination of Shinzo Abe.
(Source: the Author)
Vietnam and Thailand were also cited as having been “white labeled” by this Chinese “Trojan Horse”. The Belt and Road itself may, thus, get sanctioned globally. This analysis is consistent with the author’s thesis that the “Chinese Diaspora” will be targeted as a global threat.
In the new episode, we have also retraced or been led to, Marco Polo’s return leg, along the Silk Road, to Northern India.
The Great Game remastered in High Definition ….
In this latest episode, India is now exposing criminal elements, from China, acting within its legal jurisdiction. This author’s thesis is that China and its Belt and Road are being framed as a vertically integrated narcotics enterprise (VINE). It will be instructive to see if India follows this line of inquiry and how China, then, responds if it does. India’s new approach, to Chinese criminality, implies a deliberate action to avoid being branded with the same VINE acronym as China.
Given the demonstrable interest of JP Morgan’s International Council, in the Indian economy, and PM Modi’s stated developed market status aspirations, it would not be wise for India to become associated too closely with the Chinese VINE. Neither would it be wise for India to indulge President Putin in his war-fest, according to PM Modi.
· India has been offered the choice of becoming a player, or a battlefield, in the Sino-American “Techno-Economic War” with the “Triad’s” live sales-demo in Afghanistan.
(Source: the Author)
This author has noted that India has been given the choice of joining the developed world or being a warzone. In response, PM Modi has already stated his desire to be a developed economy within 25 years.
Hence, PM Modi has no choice, other than to abandon President Putin. PM Modi also needs to focus on what is going on along the Silk Road, to his North, to make sure he is not outflanked by China’s Belt and Road.
· “COVID-Zero” is a strategic policy tool, which suggests that COVID-19 is a strategic weapon.
· “COVID-Zero” is entering a multi-year rolling lockdown phase that will obstruct Chinese investment and trade flows.
(Source: the Author)
One senses that a major international drugs bust is coming. One also senses that nationals and entities, within the BRICs, will be implicated. One also senses that the fault lines, currently running through the BRICs, will widen considerably as a consequence of the bust.
Goldman’s prescient call, on the US over the European economy, has been followed by one on COVID-Zero. Just like this author (but much later!) Goldman predicts that COVID-Zero lockdowns will be the norm in 2023. One suspects that China is being isolated, and demoted, versus the US, in the global public domain. One also suspects that Xi Jinping is in splendid isolation. At the recent Central Asian security meetings, President Xi remained masked except in private confidence with President Putin. The Chinese president also avoided large gatherings.
Hence, President Xi can remain in COVID-Zero character, on his return to China. He can then, consistently, keep the country under lockdown whilst he cements his grip on power and neutralizes foreign intrusions.
Boeing certainly understands on which side, of the pork barrel, its bread is buttered. As a US-based and listed company, at the heart of the military-industrial nexus, Boeing is the poster child for “Friend Shoring”. It is also the poster child for “Techno” and “Conventional Economic War”. The company has, thus, recently announced that it will be changing its business and revenue model as a consequence of China’s COVID-Zero response to “Friend Shoring”. Last week, the company also announced that it will no longer make planes with Russian Aluminium. Hence, it is fair to say that Boeing is structurally aligned with the US global imperative. The company will now be rescheduling and re-prioritizing its suppliers, and customers, in a process that is consistent with the “Friend Shoring” imperative. The company now needs to be rewarded and incentivized to stick with this agenda. This rewarding/incentivizing transcends partisan boundaries since Boeing operates, nationwide, from the Pacific North West to the Antebellum South. If Boeing fails, America fails.
President Putin’s defiant pose after taking the counsel of his, alleged, BRIC allies is, perhaps, emblematic of the strained optics evinced at the recent regional meeting of the minds. Despite his bravado, Putin does not have time on his side to prosecute his war in Ukraine. The lack of reciprocal sycophancy, from President Xi, when Putin gushingly supported China’s interest in Taiwan further undermined the Russian president’s domestic, regional and global standing, thereby, giving him even less time.
One should not take India’s, apparent, pacifism too seriously, either. India is playing the autonomous balance of power, in order to extract cheap Oil and Gas from Russia and technology from the West.
China is prioritizing its Silk Road asset within its wider Belt and Road.
The BRICs are still a global threat to the developed economies and will always be viewed as such. The threat may, however, now be on an individual nation basis as opposed to a collective BRIC basis.
Whereas the BRICs are divided, yet unconquered, the EU is coming together.
Cancel Culture through Joy ….
· Disinflation price discovery by Cancel Culture is on the global commodity and capital markets agenda.
(Source: the Author)
For obvious, historical reasons Germany is reluctant to expand the role of the State into commercial economic decision-making. But, having expunged all this double-war guilt, Germans seem to have an innate enthusiasm for national socialism, of some kind, when the economic chips are down and there is a whiff of violent global conflict in the air.
· The internally conflicted Eurozone will become a managed command economy for the duration of its structural transformation towards a Federal Republic.
(Source: the Author)
Germany is, hence, sleep-walking into national socialism, admittedly, with good intentions. Doesn’t it always? And doesn’t it always end in tears globally and domestically?
These good intentions have been initiated, in the democratic forum of the Bundestag, by Lars Klingbeil, co-head of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD. Herr Klingbeil would like to take the first step towards intervention in generating and distributing marketplaces for electricity.
France is tentatively following the German example since President Macron is too weak to enforce the process.
The key to an understanding, of how all this intervention will play out, is whether the subsidized energy is rationed. During COVID, there was no rationing of resources. Thus, consumers boosted, by fiscal, and monetary policy stimulus, ran amok and, hence, so did inflation. Rationing would put pay to this inflationary outcome.
The combination of rationing today and higher taxes, in the future, is inherently disinflationary. It would also let central bankers off the hook in their inflation fight.
EU energy rationing policy stands in stark contrast to that of its Brexit foe. There is no real rationing policy in Britain.
Blame it on her “juice” ….
The new terrace football chorus may soon go as follows:
“It’s coming home to roost.
Gotta blame it on her juice.”
“Lizzo” Truss is “juicing” the UK economy and jibbing the taxpayer. The taxpayer is already broke, so “Lizzo” will have to jib the Bank of England’s balance sheet instead. This is the reason that this author suspects the Tories are so keen to encroach on the Bank’s “independence” and that of other fiscal agencies. Basically, the Tories intend to spend, what they do not have, Weimar style with an English accent.
Deficit ballooners and financiers are being invited back, to the City, in order to help “juice” the economy, whilst the Government plays at central bank, with the prospect of “juicier” bonuses. This is a double-edged sword because these guys can short the hell out of Sterling, and Sterling Assets, to “juice” their P&Ls. It’s another Big Bang that ends with a big bang, except that it has started with a big bang already.
Ultimately, whoever is playing central banker, will have to jib the foreign holders of Sterling because it can’t afford the high yields to finance “Lizzo’s Juice”. Chancellors Lawson and Lamont are proof that “juicing” is what Thatcherite Tories do. They are also proof that it ends in tears.
Depriving the British public of its entitled diet, of Footie, and other recreational pastimes, to encourage/enforce mournful introspection, will, however, prove to be counter-productive as frustrations rise, and explode when the startling realization of what happens next collectively dawns. Who will pick up the tab for this enforced loss of fun-related GDP will also incur a rancorous debate which triggers the wider debate over “Lizzo’s Juice”.
· The UK will become an austere economy with an ungovernable polity.
(Source: the Author)
When Britons have finished paying their respects, to Queen Elizabeth II, they will focus on their personal economic bereavement, and who pays and who does not pay for what funeral expenses.
The unity displayed in the queue to pay last respects, to the deceased monarch, will then degenerate back into an angry mob. If the mens’ England football team has a good World Cup (unlikely) then the hiatus before the demise of “Lizzo” may extend until Christmas. The Lionesses, however, already did the business and nobody really cared, so “Lizzo” should not raise her hopes too far.
“Lizzo” is not a credible footie aficionadista, despite her best attempts, but you can bet she soon will be at it again.
Then it will be game on for the Britain Project, with its 1990s Tony Blair DNA. This game is already happening in the high street shops that are selling out of 1990s fashion.
(Source: the Author)
The Britain Project prepares for the degeneration with an anthem, of regeneration, for when “Lizzo’s” Weimar-on-Thames rave ends. There is a precedent.
As the great Project Manager’s Rave crowd used to sing “Things Can Only Get Better”. They have to get a lot worse, first, though. Someone once said that if you can remember the 90s you weren’t there.
You probably won’t want to be right here right now, either. Evidently, King Charles III isn’t raving with “Lizzo”. One may soon be raving about “Lizzo”.