The BIS Triangulates the “Third Mandate”
“Now, again, I think it’s a legitimate question to say: is this an episode, or a condition?” (Nancy Pelosi)
Summary:
· The BIS has prescribed a “Third Mandate” approach, for all its members, given the observed failures of QE, and supply-side constraints which have combined to make inflation sticky.
· One “Third Mandate” strategy fits, but one policy size does not fit, all BIS members.
· The ECB’s Sintra colloquium affirmed that BIS members all got the “Third Mandate” memo.
· The June month-end Key Signals proprietary indicator shows that the Fed should now be easing monetary policy, which questions whether the intended easing of bank capital adequacy requirements will be enough to sustain the US economy until the new Presidential Cycle kicks in.
· Consumer attrition remains extreme, as gouging “Shrinkflation” is repackaged as gouging “Upflation”.
· Gouging “Upflated” consumer attrition, combined with a higher-for-longer Fed response, brings forward the US economic slowdown and raises its severity.
· Gouging “Upflated” consumer attrition is an election loser for Biden.
· The impact, of gouging “Upflated” consumer attrition, raises the probability of an emergency combined fiscal, and monetary policy stimulus; earlier, than anticipated, into the next Presidential cycle.
· Without AI, in Modi’s Third Mandate, India cannot devolve from the BRICS; but China has it, and it can.
· SCOTUS rules that “Dictatorship” is a Bipartisan Presidential Privilege.
· Independents had their day on Independence Day.
· Mr. Market frames Independents’ perceptions of “Dictatorship”.
· Independents frame a Capitalist Halo around Trumpenomics and a Crony Capitalist Halo around Bidenomics.
· John Williams is “owning the responsibility” of imprisonment in the “Rumsfeld Quadrant”.
· John Williams advises the Reserve Bank of India to frame the known-unknowns of “BRICsit” devolution in Rumsfeld allegories.
Extracts
· The Fed drifts into the financial stability policymaking “Third Mandate” zone, to escape from the “Prison of Transience” in the Rumsfeld Quadrant.
· The Fed has, somewhat, mitigated, but not avoided, the fallout from its higher for longer monetary policy choice.
· The “Commentariat” has failed to understand the Fed’s “Third Mandate Drift” towards greater balanced governance, and enhanced Congressional mandate performance through greater accountability.
· Discounting a successful “Third Mandate Drift” will reduce the current Fed operational risk premium in the US term structure of interest rates.
(Source: the Author)
· The Fed has, somewhat, mitigated, but not avoided, the fallout from its higher-for-longer monetary policy choice.
(Source: the Author)
· The “Commentariat” understands the 1990s Indian frame of reference, but not the devolution from/ dissolution of the BRICS objective.
(Source: the Author)
· The Fate of the Union (FOTU), and POTUS, are in the hands of the Independents.
· The Decline and Fall, of the Republican Party, since Operation Desert Storm, has been, and remains, the greatest threat to America’s global hegemony.
· The inequitable distribution, of the pecuniary return on investment, does not augur well for a substantial “Friend-Shoring/Techno-Economic War” political dividend for the Democrats.
· The Ricardian return on exogenous crisis memes, Desert Storm-to-date, does not augur well for a substantial “Friend-Shoring/Techno-Economic War” political dividend for the Democrats.
· The Party of War, needs to celebrate a different brand because war doesn’t sell with voters anymore.
· “Biden’s Slam Dunk” celebrates a different brand of war, that is “shore-friendlier” with US voters; yet totally misunderstood by most of them.
· The educational attainment level, of the militantly dissatisfied Republicans, precludes them from receiving a substantial “Friend-Shoring/Techno-Economic War” economic dividend.
(Source: the Author)
· Speaker Pelosi has purchased Time Value, and the optionality, to leverage up her influence of the trial, by fire, of President Trump; to achieve an asymmetrical Presidential election outcome with Biden’s Intrinsic Value at an all-time low.
(Source: the Author)
· The exodus, of dissenting talent, from the “Prison of Transient Groupthink”, at the New York Fed, is a strategic institutional governance success for the Federal Reserve.
· The exodus, of talent, from the New York Fed creates “balance” in the Fed's monetary policymaking process.
· A “balanced” monetary policymaking framework is consistent with the, observed, “mandate drift” towards a financial stability policymaking “Third Mandate”.
(Source: the Author)
