Peace Through Energy Security And Minsky Moments

“I still remember the conversation by phone between three of us: Your humble servant, the US President Trump and the King of Saudi Arabia participated.” (Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin)

(Source: CNBC, caption by the Author)

Summary:

· NATO’s unilateral Ukraine demand confirms that North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) is its new acronym.

· The North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) agenda is now, the editorial agenda, in the public domain.

· NATO’s unilateral Ukraine demand confirms that Sino-US relations are the Heads of Terms of any Ukraine War peace settlement.

· NATO’s unilateral Ukraine demand confirms that Sino-U.S. relations will be framed by global energy security parameter terms of trade consistent with the Ukraine War peace settlement.

· OPEC+ compliance with the global energy security parameters of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” may be driven by market-share preservation rather than altruism.

· POTUS’ 2025 State Visit itinerary affirms the primacy of the global energy security imperative.

· Rachel does DOGE, to fill Sir Keir of Starmergrad’s war chest with looted fiscal austerity.

· The filling of “Sir Keir of Starmergrad’s” war chest is an economic headwind for the UK economy.

· The economic headwind, from “Starmergrad”, blows the UK economy towards “Starmergeddon”.

· Strictly speaking, Trump Tariffs have triggered the UK Minsky Moment that Rachel attributes to him rather than her policies.

· The UK banks are using the Minsky Moment to prepare for “Starmergeddon”.

· The insolvent Bank of England would like the UK banks to use more depositors’ money, rather than its emergency credit lines to fund the Minsky Moment.

· The insolvent Bank of England thinks that negotiated (managed) trade/FX regimes are a panacea; but forgets that, since the UK is not part of a major trading bloc, it will be a price taker rather than a price negotiator.

· MPC member Mann has not understood that her farewell to gradualism implies higher interest rate risk premiums, which consume all of her aggressive interest rate cuts, and then some.

· The insolvent Bundesbank embraces Germany’s Weimar Minsky Moment of rearmament.

· President Trump cites China’s predatory currency regime as one of the justifications for his “Mar-a-Lago Accord” managed trade/FX imperative.

· The “Mar-a-Lagobergers” have placed China’s Fentanyl Hongs between a “BlackRock and a Hard Place” to take back the Belt and Road by finance rather than war.

· The “Mar-a-Lagobergers” intend to be the gatekeepers/landlords to/of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” managed trade/FX regime.

· Japan is having its Trump-inspired Minsky Moment.

· The US Navy and USMC will guarantee global energy security, in return for an “exorbitant privilege”, based on US LNG supply chains rather than less secure legacy global sources.

· North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) is NATO’s new acronym/eponym, under “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.

· North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) directly threatens the BRICS.

· The legacy New World Order would rather comply than be ignored by “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.

· The implied threat is that the American military will not guarantee energy supply chain security to those producers who sustain monopolistic supply-side constraints without paying for their security.

(Source: the Author, January 25^th 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· Sino-Russian relations are the Heads of Terms for the Ukraine War peace settlement.

(Source: the Author, March 2^nd 2025)

· A “51^st State of Gaza” will overlap the Suez Canal and dictate “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”, East of Suez, in return for political and financial consideration from the Orient.

(Source: the Author, February 8^th 2025)

(Source: The Tactical Report, caption by the Author)

(Source:al-Arabiya, caption and editing by the Author)

· The unipolar “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” reinforces the global energy security imperative, and aligns, with US Swing Producer status, to deliver a disinflationary global economic stimulus, exclusively, to America’s trade partners.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” and US Swing Producer status combine to reinforce the unipolar “US Exorbitant Privilege”.

(Source: the Author, December 7^th 2024)

· OPEC+ must cut energy prices, at least as much as the “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” threatened tariffs, on sanctioned non-US purchasers, to maintain market share.

(Source: the Author, December 21^st 2024)

(Source: invesing.com, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· The Falklands War halo finally illuminated the “Starmergrad” distraction.

· The Brexit voting, anti-immigrant, thickening “Red Wall” will not enlist, or conscript, to become the thinly underfunded Red Line defending the EU’s war at “Starmergrad”.

· The over-taxed, thinly underfunded, and financially overstretched UK polity, will not support or finance “Starmergrad”.

· The economic and political conditions precedent, at “Starmergrad”, now militate for “Starmergeddon”.

(Source: the Author, March 1st 2025)

(Source: the Author, November 30^th, 2024)

· “Fiscally alliterate” TranStarmer is trying, and failing, to talk like Clement Attlee but walk like Margaret Thatcher.

· In seeking to overcompensate verbally, for capital destruction, “fiscally alliterate” Keir Starmer is becoming universally unpopular and unelectable with all British polity members.

· X marks the spot where Keir Starmer has located himself, and the UK economy, “between a BlackRock and a Hard Place”.

· X marks the spot, outside the UK banking system, that the Bank of England identifies as the financial crisis zone, “between a BlackRock and a Hard Place”, that Chancellor Reeves is “catalyzing”.

· The bits of X that the Bank of England will not bail out, BlackRock et al can buy with a central bank/taxpayer guarantee.

· “Farmageddon” is located “between a BlackRock and a Hard Place”.

· Keir Starmer has chosen “Starmergrad”, as his Falklands, upon which to rebuild squandered political capital and/or “self-assist” die.

(Source: the Author, November 30^th 2024)

· The Trump Tariff moment has triggered the UK Minsky Moment.

(Source: the Author, February 15^th 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by Keano)

(Source: bankofengland, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· Mr. Market has begun to hyperbolically discount the conversion of the US Marshall Fiscal Dominance Plan into the EU Martial Fiscal Dominance Plan.

· The conversion of the US Marshall Fiscal Dominance Plan into the EU Martial Fiscal Dominance Plan converts the US twin deficits into EU twin deficits.

· President Trump is “checking” the hypothetical limits of US Dollar debasement, and fiat currency inflation, that the Kentucky Federal Bank of Barbarous Relic has physically set.

· EU twin deficits are framed, by France, as the fiscal basis for a deeper European economic and political union.

· The EU twin deficit-financed European economic and political union will use the Modern Monetary Monopsony Theory (MMMT) process to create new assets that will replace the distressed assets on the insolvent ECB balance sheet.

(Source: the Author, February 22^nd 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· “Mar-a-Lago Accord” is a managed trade thesis floated in from Hudson Bay.

(Source: the Author, March 1^st 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg)

(Source: the Author, December 28^th 2024)

· The “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” supply chain is antithetical to Xi’s Belt and Road.

· Keir Starmer has become a “Lame Sausage” who cannot govern a failure he cannot measure.

· The New World Order (NWO)legacy complies with “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” through the agency of the “Mar-a-Lagoberg Group”.

(Source: the Author, December 28^th 2024)

· The evolution of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China confirms that “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is antithetical to China’s Belt and Road.

· The evolution of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China confirms that China’s Belt and Road is an alleged vertically integrated criminal enterprise (VICE).

· The evolution of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China confirms that NAFTA has been conflated with China’s alleged Dope Inc. Belt and Road vertically integrated criminal enterprise (VICE).

· China’s implausible denial of involvement in America’s “Fentanyl Crisis” confirms that NAFTA has been conflated with China’s alleged “Dope Inc.” Belt and Road vertically integrated criminal enterprise (VICE).

(Source: the Author, February 8^th 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· Biden’s “Friend Shoring” Washington Consensus has been hardened into Trump’s “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is Unipolar.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is the fundamental global macro theme of the “Trump Trade” thesis.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” prescribes sanctions first, followed by regime change second, to all those evil-doers who challenge the US Dollar’s Unipolar Global Reserve Currency status.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” will transfer the global supply chain security cost from the US taxpayer to the global taxpayer/customer.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” will boost the US economy and mitigate the cost of global supply chain security for nations that trade with the USA.

· The unipolar “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” reinforces the global energy security imperative, and aligns, with US Swing Producer status, to deliver a disinflationary global economic stimulus, exclusively, to America’s trade partners.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” and US Swing Producer status combine to reinforce the unipolar “US Exorbitant Privilege”.

(Source: the Author, December 7^th 2024)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)