The Discharge Of The Special Relationship Lightweight Brigade At Starmergrad
“Could you take Russia by yourselves?” (Donald J. Trump to Sir Keir Starmer)
Summary:
· “Mar-a-Lago Accord” is a managed trade thesis floated in from Hudson Bay.
· The Falklands War halo finally illuminated the “Starmergrad” distraction.
· The Brexit voting, anti-immigrant, thickening “Red Wall” will not enlist, or conscript, to become the thinly underfunded Red Line defending the EU’s war at “Starmergrad”.
· The over-taxed, thinly underfunded, and financially overstretched UK polity, will not support or finance “Starmergrad”.
· The economic and political conditions precedent, at “Starmergrad”, now militate for “Starmergeddon”.
· In the face of defence-driven fiscal expansion, at the national level, the ECB has elected to tighten macroprudential policy rather than monetary policy.
· Germany’s new center-right government fiscally militates for ECB macroprudential prudence.
· The ECB’s developing “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”, for central banks, “Mar-a-Lago Accord” r* is higher than during the QE interregnum.
· According to the ECB, central banks will remain insolvent and, be out of the QE business until a new round of Global Reserves has been created.
· In a managed trade and managed FX regime, the central banks’ role will encompass currency board operation.
· The Dallas Fed believes that managed trade and managed FX rates, in an era of expanded Global Reserves, will be best facilitated through the creation of short-duration Central Bank reserve liabilities and consummate duration sovereign debt balance sheet assets.
· Based on the recent inventory “check”, by POTUS, at the Kentucky Federal Bank of Barbarous Relic, the next sovereign creation of Global Reserves will be in proportion to the level of national Gold Reserves.
· Assuming that the new creation of Global Reserves is proportionate, to Gold Reserves, the “Mar-a-Lago World Order” is G1+8-UK.
· The UK’s ugly Golden Ratio will frame its Minsky Moment in ugly terms.
· The “Shock” of the UK Minsky Moment drop has put the Bank of England between a “BlackRock and a Hard Place”.
· Anecdotal Intelligence (AI) suggests that the Trump Special Relationship bailout will be more like a management buyout.
· Anecdotal Intelligence (AI) suggests that Generative AI is, already, significantly driving employment and r* lower; in evidential data that is largely ignored by central bank monetary policy setters.
· Sino-Russian relations are the Heads of Terms for the Ukraine War peace settlement.
Extracts
· The Dollar-negative January, month-end, KeySignals are that the Fed should be easing and the ECB should have tightened rather than eased.
(Source: the Author, February 1st 2025)
· Mr. Market has renamed “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”.
· Mr. Market is rediscovering President Trump’s original plan for managed trade and FX rates.
· The discovery of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” rhymes with the current Pre-Covid Vibe.
(Source: the Author, February 22nd 2025)
· The UK Minsky Moment reveals the Devil’s Bargain between the insolvent Bank of England Governor and the insolvent UK Chancellor.
· The UK Devil’s Bargain was to trade central bank credible commitment, for fiscal rule-bending, to obfuscate mutual insolvency.
· The UK has the choice of a bailout by Trump or a bailout by the IMF.
(Source: the Author, February 15th 2025)
· Keir Starmer has chosen “Starmergrad”, as his Falklands, upon which to rebuild squandered political capital and/or “self-assist” die.
· President Trump may soon abandon “Starmergrad” and its encircled defenders.
(Source: the Author, November 30th 2024)
· “Starmergeddon” has been advanced to contact, with “Starmergrad”, to distract observers’ attention away from the “UK Minsky Moment”.
(Source: the Author, February 22nd 2025)
· Mr. Market has begun to hyperbolically discount the conversion of the US Marshall Fiscal Dominance Plan into the EU Martial Fiscal Dominance Plan.
· The conversion of the US Marshall Fiscal Dominance Plan into the EU Martial Fiscal Dominance Plan converts the US twin deficits into EU twin deficits.
· President Trump is “checking” the hypothetical limits of US Dollar debasement, and fiat currency inflation, that the Kentucky Federal Bank of Barbarous Relic has physically set.
· EU twin deficits are framed, by France, as the fiscal basis for a deeper European economic and political union.
· The EU twin deficit-financed European economic and political union will use the Modern Monetary Monopsony Theory (MMMT) process to create new assets that will replace the distressed assets on the insolvent ECB balance sheet.
(Source: the Author, February 22nd 2025)
· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is “transactional”.
· “Greenlandschluss” is the focal point of the True North Worldview.
· “Greenlandschluss” begs the questions of “Canadaschluss” and “Panamaschluss”.
· Denmark has enabled “Greenlandschluss” by mistakenly responding to President Trump’s terms of reference, thereby, credibly committing to them.
· Ukraine is of no strategic value to America; but it is a bargaining chip with the EU, and Russia, for “Greenlandschluss”.
· “Greenlandschluss” is not an end, but a beginning of conflict over Siberia and Manchuria.
(Source: the Author, February 1st 2025)
· China is transitioning from a strategic Russian ally to a strategic threat via a tactically useful currency tool.
(Source: the Author, February 8th 2025)
