Munich Insecurity, A UK Minsky Moment, And A “Greenlandschluss” Slam Dunk

“Soon — they will all stand at the feet of the master and will wag their tails a little.” (Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin)

(Source: politico.com, caption, and editing by the Author)

Summary:

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” translates verbatim into “Munich Insecurity Consensus”.

· Ukraine is being traded for Greenland since the EU cannot afford its own solution.

· “Munich Insecurity Consensus” is the “Green(land) Light” for Russian imperial expansion.

· President Trump will spin Russian imperial ambition, in the Arctic, as a justification for “Greenlandschluss”.

· The DDIS’ recent Arctic threat assessment's own goal is a slam dunk for “Greenlandschluss”.

· The US proposed tariffs on Aluminium and Steel are consistent with the “Onshoring” imperative of “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.

· Rhetorically speaking, “Onshore Canada” would receive tax cuts rather than tariffs.

· US-guaranteed Taiwanese national security will be, achieved through energy security, financed by a US LNG trade surplus.

· Taiwan’s energy security terms of trade are a model for Asia.

· The Trump Tariff moment has triggered the UK Minsky Moment.

· The UK Minsky Moment reveals the Devil’s Bargain between the insolvent Bank of England Governor and the insolvent UK Chancellor.

· The UK Devil’s Bargain was to trade central bank credible commitment, for fiscal rule-bending, to obfuscate mutual insolvency.

· The UK has the choice of a bailout by Trump or a bailout by the IMF.

Extracts

(Source: skynews, caption by the Author)

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is the fundamental global macro theme of the “Trump Trade” thesis.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” prescribes sanctions first, followed by regime change second, to all those evil-doers who challenge the US Dollar’s Unipolar Global Reserve Currency status.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” will transfer the global supply chain security cost from the US taxpayer to the global taxpayer/customer.

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” will boost the US economy and mitigate the cost of global supply chain security for nations that trade with the USA.

· The unipolar “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” reinforces the global energy security imperative, and aligns, with US Swing Producer status, to deliver a disinflationary global economic stimulus, exclusively, to America’s trade partners.

(Source: the Author, December 7^th 2024)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· Ukraine is of no strategic value to America; but it is a bargaining chip with the EU, and Russia, for “Greenlandschluss”.

· “Greenlandschluss” is not an end, but a beginning of conflict over Siberia and Manchuria.

(Source: the Author, February 1^st 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· China is transitioning from a strategic Russian ally to a strategic threat via a tactically useful currency tool.

(Source: the Author, February 8^th 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg)

(Source: Bloomberg)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg)

(Source: DDIS, caption by the Author)

(Source: DDIS caption by the Author)

· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is Monroe and Brzezinski Doctrinaire.

· The Monroe/Brzezinski frame of reference suggests US “Onshoring” more than “Friendshoring”.

· The evolution of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China confirms that “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is antithetical to China’s Belt and Road.

· The evolution of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China confirms that China’s Belt and Road is an alleged vertically integrated criminal enterprise (VICE).

· The evolution of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China confirms that NAFTA has been conflated with China’s alleged Dope Inc. Belt and Road vertically integrated criminal enterprise (VICE).

· China’s implausible denial of involvement in America’s “Fentanyl Crisis” confirms that NAFTA has been conflated with China’s alleged “Dope Inc.” Belt and Road vertically integrated criminal enterprise (VICE).

(Source: the Author, February 8^th 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· The US Navy and USMC will guarantee global energy security, in return for an “exorbitant privilege”, based on US LNG supply chains rather than less secure legacy global sources.

· North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) is NATO’s new acronym/eponym, under “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.

· North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) directly threatens the BRICS.

(Source: the Author, January 25^th 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· A “51^st State of Gaza” will overlap the Suez Canal and dictate “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”, East of Suez, in return for political and financial consideration from the Orient.

(Source: the Author, February 8^th 2025)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· Central Bank insolvency is aligning with fiscal insolvency at a rapid pace in the global economy.

· The alignment of central bank and fiscal insolvency promotes the exclusive interest in financial stability policy.

· The interest in financial stability policy will enable the application of Modern Monetary Monopsony Theory (MMMT).

· The UK has turned Japanese in 2022 instead of 2023 as originally predicted by the Bank of England.

· Despite alleged conflicted interest the Bank of England and the UK Treasury have aligned interest in financial stability policy by nature of their insolvency problems.

· Kishidanomics i.e. Abenomics II is the globally acceptable face of UK Kwasinomics.

· The Bank of England is the first adopter of the next round of Modern Monetary Monopsony Theory (MMMT).

· “Fullbrookgate” is the UK change management critical pathway from “Butler Model” to “Blair Witch Project Concierge Model”.

· Britons are the useful idiots that US home flippers were, in the GFC, to enable the next global credit expansion.

(Source: the Author, October 1^st 2022)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· Public opinion about the economy, and public sector, in the “Ungoverned Kingdom” (UK), is at “GFC trough”, and “sub-Liz Truss” levels.

· Public opinion about the “Ungoverned Kingdom” (UK) re-joining the EU is at fantasy levels, wildly, divergent from the current “pre-ERM Exit” levels of economic optimism and Sterling.

· The “Global Blair Inc. Witch Project”, Special Relationship reset, by “Blair Alum”, has been shaken, but, not stirred, by the same Crony Capitalist blowback as the “Palace Coup”.

· Rishi Sunak’s “VIP Lane Butler Service” has been relocated, and rebranded, as Don Keir “Inner Temple’s” “Concierge Service” at the Office for Investment (OFI).

· Evidently, “Grim Labour’s Fiscal Euthanasia (GLFE)” is intended to create attractive financial assets; for the “Concierge” to furnish, to “connected” foreign investors, rather than for the IMF to bail out.

· The rapacious, and capricious, Public Sector will undermine the “Concierge”; and divert him towards the IMF.

· The “Masters of the Asset Class Universe”, have tumbled, and are evading Don Keir “Inner Temple’s” next caper.

· The “Masters of the Asset Class Universe’s” evasion is the Bank of England’s balance sheet diversion.

· The Bank of England’s diversion will be the IMF’s invasion.

(Source: The Author, September 7^th 2024)

(Source: bankofengland, caption by the Author)

(Source: bankofengland,caption by the Author)

· Having baled on Don Keir “Inner Temple’s” Jibbers, Andrew “The Governor” Bailey should, now, be tightening, against them, according to the September Key Signals monthly UK indicator.

· Chancellor Reeves signals that the UK fiscal rules will be bent.

· Presumably, Andrew “The Governor” Bailey will let Sterling do the tightening; until it crashes the UK economy, at which point, he will, then, let it do the easing.

· The effective loss of control of Sterling will oblige the UK to seek help from the IMF.

· The IMF will opine that the bent fiscal rules are broken.

· EU Mercantilism/Protectionism and the coming levels of Sterling volatility vitiate strongly against the UK’s Re-join riff.

(Source: the Author, September 28^th, 2024)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)