“Mar-a-Lago Consensus” Is The New Populist Unipolar Post Washington Consensus
“There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”(Donald J Trump)
Summary:
· Biden’s “Friend Shoring” Washington Consensus has been hardened into Trump’s “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.
· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is Unipolar.
· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is the fundamental global macro theme of the “Trump Trade” thesis.
· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” prescribes sanctions first, followed by regime change second, to all those evil-doers who challenge the US Dollar’s Unipolar Global Reserve Currency status.
· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” will transfer the global supply chain security cost from the US taxpayer to the global taxpayer/customer.
· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” will boost the US economy and mitigate the cost of global supply chain security for nations that trade with the USA.
· The unipolar “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” reinforces the global energy security imperative, and aligns, with US Swing Producer status, to deliver a disinflationary global economic stimulus, exclusively, to America’s trade partners.
· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” and US Swing Producer status combine to reinforce the unipolar “US Exorbitant Privilege”.
· “Trump’s Technocracy” is proselytizing “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” into disinflationary, fiscal deficit shrinking, productivity gains.
· Sir Keir Starmer hopes to break out of “Starmergrad” via a salient return East of Suez.
· Leaderless Germany aligns the leaderless EU with the “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” North of the Black Sea.
Extracts
· The new “Friend Shoring” Washington Consensus is in conflict with the Post-Washington Consensus beneficiaries.
(Source: the Author, July 31st 2022)
· Taiwan conflates Dope Inc. with the Bay of Pigs in a new series of Narcos.
· The BRICs have reached an internally conflicting and global disinflationary tipping point at which they turn from net energy importers to net energy re-exporters.
· To gain access to the US technology Crown Jewels, India must go through the Taiwanese “Friend Shoring” gatekeeper, thereby, putting itself into conflict with China.
· Russia is at the global strategic loss threshold despite Potemkin claims to the contrary.
· The BRICs tipping point is congruent with a new Ukraine “peace with honour” attempt.
(Source: the Author, September 10th 2022)
· OPEC’s “ill-advised” response to the “Platts’ Brent Tweak” reinforces the doctrine and dogma of US Friend Shoring, whilst, strengthening and rewarding the Exorbitant Privilege.
· OPEC’s “ill-advised” response to the “Platts’ Brent Tweak” makes the US economy relatively stronger than its trade partners and adversaries.
· The USA has been afforded Swing Producer status, hence, the opportunity to influence short-term inflation expectations in addition to even greater influence over long-term inflation expectations.
· America now has the opportunity to exert greater influence on long-term inflation expectations, and energy security, on China’s front doorstep, in Asian Friend-Shoring supply chains.
· China is “exporting deflation and détente” by playing OPEC “frienemies” off against each other, and Russia, over market share of its petroleum imports.
(Source: the Author, April 8th 2023)
· Extended OPEC/Russian production cuts have had the unintended effect of strengthening the US Exorbitant Privilege, and US economic relative outperformance/attractiveness which are discounted into the “Stronger for Longer” US Dollar.
· American “Swing Producer Status” is, effectively, “Texas Swing Producer Status”.
(Source: the Author, September 30th 2023)
· President Trump may soon abandon “Starmergrad” and its encircled defenders.
(Source: the Author, November 30th 2024)
