“Mar-a-Lago Consensus World Order” Stormtroopers, And Storm Clouds, At The Gates

"She's really taken Europe by storm, and everyone else, and we're just having dinner tonight." (Donald J. Trump, Author’s emphasis)

(Source: politico.com, caption by the Author, editing by William Shakespeare)

Summary:

· President Trump is establishing a populist Mar-a-Lago Consensus World Order, to work around the existing New World Order.

· The Mar-a-Lago Consensus view is that the European Far Right is too Left, and, must, therefore, be worked around also.

· Curated Mar-a-Lago Consensus will not be “moderate”, or “moderated”.

· “Truth and Reconciliation” is a cryptonym; that denotes a political compromise to sanitize, but not drain, the Swamp, to overcome the friction that undermines the normalization of Mar-a-Lago Consensus in foreign policy.

· The economists’ consensus is that Mar-a-Lago Consensus is not inflationary.

· The Fed has chosen to make inflation-mandated monetary policy decisions basis an inflation index that correlates closely with the disinflationary Mar-a-Lago Consensus view on inflation.

· The Fed’s inflation index choice will allow the central bank to make politically obliging decisions under cover of disinflationary obliging data.

· The Fed’s politically obliging decisions will be made, in compliance with Mar-a-Lago Consensus, in the context of the US Manufacturing Recession.

· The Key Signals UK IMF bailout reprise thesis, has moved from ridicule, through violent resistance to self-evident truth status.

· Governor Bailey is at his pre-conceived event horizon, of the “recognition” point, “beyond which control could break down if things got really bad”.

· BlackRock has abandoned funding the Labour Party’s economic agenda to re-align with Mar-a-Lago Consensus.

· Where BlackRock exits, other leveraged UK infrastructure players follow.

· The Bank of England will be pressured, to fund what BlackRock et al have abandoned, with little success.

· The IMF will restructure what BlackRock et al have abandoned and then resell, the distressed asset, at a deep discount, so the same said counterparties’ distressed investment funds.

Extracts

(Source: politico, caption, and editing by the Author)

(Source: the Author, April 22^nd 2023)

· Failure is an orphan, and so is Emmanuel Macron.

· “Fragmentation Spring” has shifted from the IMF Spring Meetings, through Russia, via Ukraine, to Europe.

· A Eurozone financial crisis, which leads to banking sector consolidation, is a highly likely asymmetric outcome that does not require the passage of the EU’s proposal to end bank bailouts at the national level.

· Christine Lagarde accepts the IMF’s monetary policy framework paradigm shift thesis as a catalyst for multipolar, potentially conflicted, global central banking fragmentation.

· Lagarde’s attempt to placate the Hawks, while promoting Macron’s “Strategic Autonomy”, is inconsistent with Eurozone financial stability and unity.

(Source: the Author, April 22^nd 2023)

(Source: foxnews, editing by the Author)

(Source: politico, caption by the Author)

(Source: politico, caption by the Author)

(Source: bbc, caption by the Author)

(Source: BBC, caption, and editing by the Author)

(Source: FT, caption by the Author)

(Source: hindustantimes, caption by the Author)

· The unipolar “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” reinforces the global energy security imperative, and aligns, with US Swing Producer status, to deliver a disinflationary global economic stimulus, exclusively, to America’s trade partners.

(Source: the Author, December 7^th 20204)

(Source: investing.com, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· Public opinion about the economy, and public sector, in the “Ungoverned Kingdom” (UK), is at “GFC trough”, and “sub-Liz Truss” levels.

· Public opinion about the “Ungoverned Kingdom” (UK) re-joining the EU is at fantasy levels, wildly, divergent from the current “pre-ERM Exit” levels of economic optimism and Sterling.

· The “Global Blair Inc. Witch Project”, Special Relationship reset, by “Blair Alum”, has been shaken, but, not stirred, by the same Crony Capitalist blowback as the “Palace Coup”.

· Rishi Sunak’s “VIP Lane Butler Service” has been relocated, and rebranded, as Don Keir “Inner Temple’s” “Concierge Service” at the Office for Investment (OFI).

· Evidently, “Grim Labour’s Fiscal Euthanasia (GLFE)” is intended to create attractive financial assets; for the “Concierge” to furnish, to “connected” foreign investors, rather than for the IMF to bail out.

· The rapacious, and capricious, Public Sector will undermine the “Concierge”; and divert him towards the IMF.

· The “Masters of the Asset Class Universe”, have tumbled, and are evading Don Keir “Inner Temple’s” next caper.

· The “Masters of the Asset Class Universe’s” evasion is the Bank of England’s balance sheet diversion.

· The Bank of England’s diversion will be the IMF’s invasion.

(Source: the Author, September 7^th 2024)

· Having baled on Don Keir “Inner Temple’s” Jibbers, Andrew “The Governor” Bailey should, now, be tightening, against them, according to the September Key Signals monthly UK indicator.

· Chancellor Reeves signals that the UK fiscal rules will be bent.

· Presumably, Andrew “The Governor” Bailey will let Sterling do the tightening; until it crashes the UK economy, at which point, he will, then, let it do the easing.

· The effective loss of control of Sterling will oblige the UK to seek help from the IMF.

· The IMF will opine that the bent fiscal rules are broken.

· EU Mercantilism/Protectionism and the coming levels of Sterling volatility vitiate strongly against the UK’s Re-join riff.

(Source: the Author, September 28^th 2024)

(Source: the Author, November 30^th, 2024).

· In seeking to overcompensate verbally, for capital destruction, “fiscally alliterate” Keir Starmer is becoming universally unpopular and unelectable with all British polity members.

· X marks the spot where Keir Starmer has located himself, and the UK economy, “between a BlackRock and a Hard Place”.

· X marks the spot, outside the UK banking system, that the Bank of England identifies as the financial crisis zone, “between a BlackRock and a Hard Place”, that Chancellor Reeves is “catalyzing”.

· The bits of X that the Bank of England will not bail out, BlackRock et al can buy with a central bank/taxpayer guarantee.

· “Farmageddon” is located “between a BlackRock and a Hard Place”.

· Keir Starmer has chosen “Starmergrad”, as his Falklands, upon which to rebuild squandered political capital and/or “self-assist” die.

· Global food price inflation locates “Starmergrad” “between a BlackRock and a Hard Place”.

· RFK Junior locates “Starmergrad” “between a BlackRock and a Hard Place”.

· President Trump may soon abandon “Starmergrad” and its encircled defenders.

(Source: the Author, November 30^th, 2024)

(Source: FT.com, caption, and editing by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source and editing by the Author, October 6^th, 2024)

(Source: ft.com, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)