“Mar-a-Lago Consensus” To The Core

“In this term, everybody wants to be my friend.” (Donald J. Trump)

(Source: politico.com, caption, and editing by the Author)

Summary:

· To save itself, and the Special Relationship, the Global Blair Inc. Witch Project has folded its “hands” in with the “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” imperative.

· “Starmergeddon” is the most likely critical pathway of the Global Blair Inc. Witch Project's next step.

· The Fed’s big nudge, to lower bond yields, by focusing Mr. Market’s attention on Core CPI/PCE, rather than headline inflation data, is in full swing and well received.

· The Fed’s big nudge, to lower bond yields, has embraced the “Mar-a-Lago Consensus Drill Baby, Drill Swing Producer” energy and commodity disinflation thesis.

· The UK Office for National Statistics is cherry-picking inflation statistics; to serve the Government’s damned lies, and the Bank of England’s politically appointed venality.

· The IMF has given the UK cherry pickers, and rule benders, enough room to hang themselves.

Extracts

(Source: the Author, September 10^th 2022)

· Dimon’s Hurrikraine is also the (Tony) Blair Inc. Witch Project tailwind.

(Source and editing by the Author, September 10^th 2022)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by Credence/the Author)

(Source and caption, by the Author November 16^th, 2024)

· Britain, and Jamie Dimon, expect Tony Blair to save, the Special Relationship and, his Britain Project.

· In performing his patriotic duty, Tony Blair may need to sacrifice Keir Starmer.

· A UK financial crisis is the perfect “catalyst”, and smokescreen, for Tony Blair to operate in.

· Chancellor Reeves is preparing the “catalyst” by cannibalizing the Bank of England’s taxpayer-guaranteed capital base to feed Mammon, instead.

· Chancellor Reeves is preparing the “catalyst” by creating a light-touch financial regulatory regime that, exclusively, serves Mammon.

· Cannibalizing the Bank of England’s taxpayer-guaranteed capital base coerces the central bank into, misguidedly, thinking that the only source of taxpayer-guaranteed capital is to buy more Gilts.

· The UK taxpayer cannot guarantee Gilts, because Chancellor Reeves has killed economic growth while preparing the “catalyst” for “Starmergeddon”.

· Serving Mammon with taxpayer funds, and light touch regulations, will create a GFC rinse-and-repeat environment; that will have no taxpayer funds, for the inevitable bailout, when it goes pear-shaped.

· “Garbage” In, equals the Fed’s “sometimes-bumpy” inflation risk mitigation reaction function out.

(Source: the Author, November 16^th 2024)

· The Key Signals UK IMF bailout reprise thesis, has moved from ridicule, through violent resistance to self-evident truth status.

· Governor Bailey is at his pre-conceived event horizon, of the “recognition” point, “beyond which control could break down if things got really bad”.

· BlackRock has abandoned funding the Labour Party’s economic agenda to re-align with Mar-a-Lago Consensus.

· Where BlackRock exits, other leveraged UK infrastructure players follow.

· The Bank of England will be pressured, to fund what BlackRock et al have abandoned, with little success.

· The IMF will restructure what BlackRock et al have abandoned and then resell, the distressed asset, at a deep discount, so the same said counterparties’ distressed investment funds.

(Source: the Author, January 11^th 2025)

· The Fed has chosen to make inflation-mandated monetary policy decisions basis an inflation index that correlates closely with the disinflationary Mar-a-Lago Consensus view on inflation.

· The Fed’s inflation index choice will allow the central bank to make politically obliging decisions under cover of disinflationary obliging data.

· The Fed’s politically obliging decisions will be made, in compliance with Mar-a-Lago Consensus, in the context of the US Manufacturing Recession.

(Source: the Author, January 11^th 2025)

(Source: Clevelandfed, caption by the Author)

(Source: tradingeconomics, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

· Aramco has confirmed that “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” is deflationary, in energy security terms.

· Rumour has it that China intends to make “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” deflationary, in manufactured goods terms.

· Central bankers are anticipating the disinflationary outcome of “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”, even before Trump’s, threatened, tariff hikes have blown their economic growth headwinds.

(Source: the Author, December 14^th 2024)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: deccanherald, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: FT, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)

(Source: mondovisione, caption, and editing by the Author)

· Having baled on Don Keir “Inner Temple’s” Jibbers, Andrew “The Governor” Bailey should, now, be tightening, against them, according to the September Key Signals monthly UK indicator.

· Chancellor Reeves signals that the UK fiscal rules will be bent.

· Presumably, Andrew “The Governor” Bailey will let Sterling do the tightening; until it crashes the UK economy, at which point, he will, then, let it do the easing.

· The effective loss of control of Sterling will oblige the UK to seek help from the IMF.

· The IMF will opine that the bent fiscal rules are broken.

· EU Mercantilism/Protectionism and the coming levels of Sterling volatility vitiate strongly against the UK’s Re-join riff.

(Source: the Author, September 28^th 2024)

(Source: Bloomberg, caption by the Author)