#Fragmentation Spring: Shifting Paradigms, And Shifting Frameworks, For Shifty People ….
“We have to refine our monetary policy framework.” (Gita Gopinath)
Summary:
· The IMF concludes that the structural “Fragmentation” paradigm shift has shifted developed central bank monetary policy frameworks.
· The IMF implies that the absurd combination of “Quantitative Tightening” and “Qualitative Easing” is the optimal way to trade off inflation and financial stability risks at this point in the Polycrisis.
· “Fragmentation Spring” is shifting from the IMF Spring Meetings to Russia, via Ukraine.
· The epiphany of the “Son of Al Qaeda” has occurred in time for the “Mother of All Fragmentations” in Russia.
· President Macron gave the potential EU-USA trade war a little nudge and confirmed the Sino-American context.
· President Macron advocates “Strategic Autonomy” to evade the “Mother of All Fragmentations”.
· Macron’s abstract definition of “Strategic Autonomy” used to be known as the “Balance of Power” in the Anglo-Saxon vernacular.
· The recent Hungarian definition of “Strategic Autonomy” puts greater fragmentation risk, from national self-interest, on the EU.
· The EU rejects Germany’s pre-COVID/pre-GFC fiscal definition of “Strategic Autonomy”.
· “Speaker Pelosi’s Bottom” is officially a long-only global macro investment factor.
· The Sage of Omaha is betting on a Japanese victory, in the fragmented “Friend-Shoring” War of the Pacific, but fully hedging his currency risk.
· The “Butler Model” in the Ungovernable City, of the Ungovernable Kingdom (UK), is being change-managed from the “Poor Man of Europe” to the “Aspiring Poor Man of Asia” job description.
· POTUS confirms the US Populist bipartisan policy position that the “Aspiring Poor Man of Asia” will not get officially “Friend-Shored” until Ireland is “a nation once again”.
· UK change-management is being change-managed by the French Lord of the PM’s childhood Manor.
· UK change management is exclusively in the interest of the Ungovernable City to the exclusion of the fragmenting ex-Ungovernable City regions.
· UK change management’s attempt to play the Anglo-Saxon “Balance of Power”, to Macron’s “Balance of Power”, risks being viewed as “perfidious” in both Washington and the Elysee Palace.
· Marshall Wace is betting against the, UK Taxpayer-Owned, “House of the Aspiring Poor Man of Asia”.
· Lizzo’s cold dish of “appeasement” has the flavor of a “Grand Coalition of the Right”.
· The Fed signals another two years and $2.6 Trillion, of Quantitative Tightening insolvency, thereby, at least two more years and $2.6 Trillion of Qualitative Easing.
Timelines converging basis Spring Contract thesis delivery.