Liberation Day 2: Mar-A-Lago World Order (MALWO)
"In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built and .... were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves." (Donald J. Trump)
Summary:
· The Key Signalled “incoming secular economic expansion and bull market” Volcker Vibe has arrived.
· Mr. Market’s belated understanding of Adversarial Cooperation prompts him to climb “the Wall of Worry surrounding the Risk On Divine Conspiracy Theory thesis”.
· DOGE’s economic headwind cuts will transfer economic tailwind wealth to leveraged private capital, through bank capital adequacy requirement cuts.
· Moody’s nudges DOGE to transfer the Federal businesses/liabilities that it doesn’t cut to newly leveraged-up private capital.
· Chair Powell will be the last independent Fed Chair and has bequeathed the loss of credible commitment to his successor by way of strategic dual mandate review.
· The Chips Act is being rewritten as the Nvidia Global Monopoly Act.
· Nvidia is at the AI core of global energy security.
· OPEC energy security will be guaranteed in return, for regional autonomy, and $40-$50 per barrel oil prices, rather than legacy Neocon-New World Order terms of trade.
· Defence of OPEC energy security and regional autonomy will be made in America and not paid for by American taxpayers.
· Since the USA did the New World Order (NWO) heavy lifting, by pecuniary default, Mar-A-Lago World Order (MALWO) heads of terms will apply going forward.
· The ways and means to transform NATO into a North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) organization are being negotiated.
· President Macron is the “N-A-S-T-Y” in NATO.
· President Macron is the target for a Replacement Theorem solution.
Extracts
· “Mar-a-Lago Consensus” just had its US Minsky Moment reveal.
· The US Minsky Moment is the loss of the Fed's credible commitment.
· The loss of Fed credible commitment is a result of the insolvency that DOGE will exploit.
· The Fed’s credible commitment, and, hence, monetary policymaking is being realigned with DOGE.
· The US Minsky Moment reveals that DOGE is the equivalent of Paul Volcker for the incoming secular economic expansion and bull market.
(Source: the Author, March 15th, 2025)
· Disinflationary tailwinds from China are blowing, via the Eurozone, through the developed central banking community.
· The sequential easing process, finally endorsed by the Fed, is required by Mr. Market to provide a Risk On halo to the unfolding managed trade/FX negotiations.
· Above all, a Risk On halo is required for a Trump Third Term.
· In a profane contradiction to his life’s work, the Pope’s funeral is framed as the Risk On halo for the holy trinity of peace in Ukraine, a managed trade/FX deal, and a Trump Third Term.
(Source: the Author, April 26th 2025)
· Mr. Market’s Divine Risk Off Comedy thesis is on the wrong side of the Wall of Worry surrounding the Risk On Divine Conspiracy Theory thesis.
· The USA and China are Adversarially Cooperating.
(Source: the Author, May 10th 2025)
· The US Navy and USMC will guarantee global energy security, in return for an “exorbitant privilege”, based on US LNG supply chains rather than less secure legacy global sources.
· The legacy New World Order would rather comply than be ignored by “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.
· The implied threat is that the American military will not guarantee energy supply chain security to those producers who sustain monopolistic supply-side constraints without paying for their security.
· The Fed has been executively ordered to comply, with the energy security disinflation executive order, by easing before the energy disinflation has occurred.
(Source: the Author, January 25th 2025)
· OPEC+ compliance with the global energy security parameters of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” may be driven by market-share preservation rather than altruism.
· POTUS’ 2025 State Visit itinerary affirms the primacy of the global energy security imperative.
(Source: the Author, March 8th, 2025)
"It's crucial for the wider world to know this great transformation has not come from Western interventionists, or flying people in beautiful planes giving you lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs. In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built and the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves. No, the gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called 'nation builders,' neocons, or liberal non-profits like those who spent trillions and trillions of dollars failing to develop Baghdad, so many other cities. Instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought by the people of the region themselves, the people that are right here, the people that have lived here all their lives, developing your own sovereign countries, pursuing your own unique visions and charting your own destinies in your own way. They told you how to do it, but they had no idea how to do it themselves. Peace, prosperity, and progress ultimately came not from a radical rejection of your heritage, but rather from embracing your national traditions and embracing that same heritage that you love so dearly. You achieved a modern miracle the Arabian way."
(Donald J. Trump)
· North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) is NATO’s new acronym/eponym, under “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.
· North Atlantic Energy Security (NAES) directly threatens the BRICS.
· The legacy New World Order would rather comply than be ignored by “Mar-a-Lago Consensus”.
(Source: the Author, January 25th 2025)
· NATO’s unilateral Ukraine demand confirms that Sino-US relations are the Heads of Terms of any Ukraine War peace settlement.
· NATO’s unilateral Ukraine demand confirms that Sino-U.S. relations will be framed by global energy security parameter terms of trade consistent with the Ukraine War peace settlement.
(Source: the Author, January 25th 2025)
· The “Liberation Tariff” formula is a Replacement Theorem Solution, from first principles.
· The “Liberation Tariff” formula can be solved for global regime change by substituting migration for trade flows.
· “Liberation Tariffs” are a tax on poor nations that cannot afford US exports and have already been penalised by DOGE cuts to US foreign aid agencies.
· “Liberation Tariffs” are targeted at Chinese white-label, re-export hubs in the poor nations that cannot afford US exports.
· Tariffed poor nations will “liberate” migrants and export them to Europe/UK in vast numbers.
· European/UK “liberated-migrant” importers will regime change into Populist alignment with the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”.
· The Populist-aligned West will then repatriate imported migrants and regime change, at source, along old colonial lines, in poor nations.
· The “liberation” of President Macron’s prescient anticipation, of “Liberation Day”, signals pre-cognitive intelligence of the grand strategy behind it.
· The EU will be split between those who collaborate with Trump and those who resist.
(Source: the Author, April 5th 2025)
"We love France, right? But I think we did a little more to win the war than France did. Do we agree? I don't want to be a wise guy, but when Hitler made his speech at the Eiffel Tower, I would say that wasn't exactly ideal."