States Of Disunion: “SOD-U”
“My mentality was to go out and win at any cost.” (Michael Jordan)
Summary:
· The Biden Slam Dunk of 2022 recently got shot down, somewhere over South Carolina, by a surface-to-air inflation-guided missile.
· Biden’s SOTU re-election message was delivered against a political backdrop of heightened partisanship.
· Biden’s SOTU re-election message was delivered from a Key Signals proprietary signal indicator point at which the US economy has landed at a place where inflation is well above the Fed’s target and showing great inertia.
· This author’s most closely watched US inflation indicator has recently shown alarming strength.
· Inertial inflation means a Fed that must be tighter for longer, even if it doesn’t tighten further.
· A Fed that is tighter for longer means fewer votes for Biden.
· Biden’s funny valentine, for Lael Brainard, has the familiar cadence, of Patriotic Monetary Policymaking, and the faint hint, of Fed capture, that both resonate with election strategy.
· Biden’s SOTU re-election message is domestic which means that foreign policy will be subcontracted out to US Inc. and the Masters of the Asset Class Universe.
· VP Harris’s War Crimes Trials velleity marks a transition from Ukraine War to Russian Civil War.
· Germany is dancing the Time Warp “jump to the left and then a step to the Right” again.
· The ECB is delivering on its promise to provide disinflation to the Eurozone Project whilst, simultaneously, triggering the financial stability crisis required for deeper Eurozone consolidation.
· Philip Lane implies that it’s Armageddon Time, in the Eurozone, with the next ECB tightening.
· It’s Armagideon Time, in the UK (Ungovernable Kingdom), at which point “a lot of people won’t get no justice” in order for a lot fewer people to maintain political control.
· Armagideon Time repels rather than attracts capital, thereby, making political control unstable and ephemeral.
Look at The State of U ….
The outcome of the infamous, Biden Slam Dunk of 2022 recently occurred. It was a time for reflection and tactical adjustment for the final quarter of the presidential cycle and re-election campaign.
President Biden recently made his SOTU address. It is a significant fact that this address coincided with a Key Signals proprietary indicator that is consistent with a US economy that has landed. This landing has, also, occurred with inflation well above the Fed’s target and losing momentum on converging lower on it.
In light of the inertial inflation, above target situation, the Fed must remain tighter for longer even if it tightens no further.
President Biden’s SOTU address was all about the next election. Hence, the content was domestic. On the international front, current conflicts were framed as attacks on American sovereignty. Any hopes of framing the nation as unified were scuttled by Republican belligerence and booing.
Thus, the domestic political and economic fundamentals are not the best from which to make an election run. Biden is clearly worried about his prospects. This worry has prompted an economic team reshuffle.
